Of footballs and black books

The President of the United States is entrusted with the sole authority to order his

country’s armed forces to launch a nuclear attack.

  A single civilian, then, has the power to destroy cities, communities, nations, civilisations.

  Wherever he goes, the president is accompanied by a military officer carrying the ‘football’, a briefcase containing Washington’s nuclear war plan, known as the SIOP* Decisions Handbook, which has a list of secret command bunkers in the United States and instructions on how to operate something called the Emergency Broadcast System.

   Also known as the presidential emergency satchel, it contains the all-important nuclear launch codes.

   A second ‘football’ is issued to the vice-president.

   (The Russian version is known as the cheget).

   The Handbook contains various attack options, using cartoon-like illustrations to get the points across quickly. It’s known as the Black Book.

   During the Watergate scandal, U.S. president Richard Nixon was depressed and drinking heavily. His Secretary of Defense, James Schlesinger, ordered the Joint Chiefs of Staff to seek his approval before acting on the president’s orders.   

   Just in case…

  Nixon is long gone. Instead, the man with the authority to order a nuclear war today is an ignorant, ill-informed felon, a bigot and narcissist of the Far Right, and his Secretary for War an unabashed white supremacist who revels in the slaughter of civilians, Moslems especially.

   We should all be very afraid.

   My next thriller, Oceans Deep, is centred on characters who must face up to a nuclear confrontation with Putin’s Russia. Much of the action takes place on board HMS Scimitar, a fictional British nuclear missile submarine or SSBN.

   The procedures for preparing and sanctioning the launch of the UK’s Trident D2 missiles are very different from that of their U.S. counterparts. While much of the UK’s submarine-based deterrent is based on designs from, or manufactured by, U.S. corporations, the British are able to launch a retaliatory strike without seeking U.S. approval. They probably wouldn’t do so, but they have the capability.

   The UK deterrent, like that of the French, is independent, the French more so.

   Two developments have changed the nature of both French and British nuclear postures. The first is the Ukraine war that leaves many Europeans feeling exposed and weak without the certainty of U.S. support. The second is Trump’s negative views of his European allies, along with his rapport with Putin.

   Washington’s war on Iran at Israel’s behest seems to be another factor pushing the Europeans to do more in their own defence.

   France is the only nuclear-armed power within the European Union, and President Emmanuel Macron has more than once hinted that Paris might adjust its hitherto sovereign force de dissuasion to provide Europe with a protective nuclear umbrella. After all, it not only deploys nuclear missiles on board its four SSBNs, but maintains nuclear capable Dassault Rafale F3 aircraft with air launched missiles and deployed by the aircraft carrier Charles-de-Gaulle.

    Such a move would certainly add to French stature in Europe and beyond, although details of how joint command and control might might work have not been made public.

    France deploys the world’s fourth largest nuclear force with around 300 warheads.

    The British have adopted a policy of ‘studied ambiguity’ when asked about the number of Trident D2 missiles and independently targeted warheads deployed on their four SSBNs, but it’s thought to be twelve missiles on each boat, and four warheads on each missile.

    Recent reports suggest one of the missiles on each submarine carries only one warhead with a low yield, indicating that the UK is modifying its all-or-nothing countervalue strategy by responding to its European allies’ perceived need for a sub-strategic nuclear capability in the face of a possible conventional Russian attack, or an assault involving Russian tactical nuclear weapons.

    In June last year the UK announced the purchase of a dozen nuclear-capable F35-A fighters specifically to provide its NATO allies with a nuclear deterrence.

    Europe’s defences are changing. Whether they will reinforce deterrence and stabilise European security or increase the risks of nuclear conflagration remains to be seen.

*SIOP - Single Integrated Operational Plan, superseded by Contingency Plan or CONPLAN 8044.

March, 2026